Bitcoin appears poised for a historic price surge, with industry experts forecasting a potential rise to $137,000 by the third quarter of 2025. Bitcoin predicted hinges on macroeconomic liquidity trends and technical chart patterns. Leading analysts and market signals support this outlook, but the trajectory largely depends on the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) continuing to inject liquidity into financial markets.
Analyst Titan of Crypto Foresees a Six-Figure Breakout
Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Titan of Crypto anticipates a significant breakout for Bitcoin. In a recent X post, the analyst pointed out a bullish pennant formation on Bitcoin’s daily chart—a pattern often signaling sharp upward price movements. Based on this structure, Titan estimates Bitcoin could climb to $137,000 between July and August 2025, marking a new all-time high.
Titan emphasized that Bitcoin must first break and sustain above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for a sustained rally. Currently, Bitcoin encounters resistance at several critical technical levels, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. A clear breakout above these levels could confirm strong bullish momentum, setting the stage for Bitcoin to revisit six-figure territory.
Macro Trends Amplify Bitcoin’s Momentum: $500 Billion in Treasury Liquidity
Beyond technical indicators, macroeconomic factors could significantly drive Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Since February 2025, the U.S. Treasury has infused over $500 billion into markets by reducing its Treasury General Account balance. This action followed the U.S. government hitting the $36 trillion debt ceiling on January 2, 2025, prompting the Treasury to draw on reserve cash to fund operations.
Macroeconomic analyst Tomas noted that this reduction has elevated net Federal Reserve liquidity to $6.3 trillion, a liquidity boost that could propel Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. While some risk assets have shown a muted response, Bitcoin demonstrates growing sensitivity to these capital inflows.
Understanding the Treasury General Account’s Role in Crypto Markets
The Treasury General Account (TGA) serves as the U.S. government’s main checking account at the Federal Reserve, managing tax collections, bill payments, and other fiscal activities. When the Treasury lowers the TGA balance, it releases funds into the broader economy, enhancing market liquidity.
Tomas highlighted that the drawdown started on February 12, right after the government exhausted “extraordinary measures” to delay hitting the debt ceiling. Since then, the TGA balance has fallen from $842 billion to $342 billion, injecting hundreds of billions into financial markets. By the end of April, this liquidity could reach $600 billion, potentially growing further if debt ceiling negotiations stretch into the summer.
Tax Season May Pause the Rally, But Recovery Looms
Although the upcoming tax season might temporarily reduce market liquidity, Tomas predicts the TGA drawdown will pick up again in May. If liquidity expansion maintains its current pace through Q3, net market liquidity could hit a multi-year peak of $6.6 trillion—a scenario that has historically favored Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Bitcoin’s Strong Tie to Global Liquidity: Research Highlights Correlation
Financial analyst Lyn Alden’s study reveals Bitcoin often acts as a “global liquidity barometer.” Her findings show Bitcoin aligns with global liquidity trends 83% of the time over any 12-month period, outperforming assets like gold, SPX, and VT in liquidity correlation.
In previous cycles, TGA drawdowns in 2022 and 2023 sparked speculative rallies in Bitcoin and altcoins. If this trend repeats, the current liquidity influx could propel Bitcoin upward, particularly as investor interest in risk assets rises.
Mixed Market Sentiment, Yet Momentum Grows
Despite the optimistic forecast, Bitcoin must overcome key resistance levels to confidently aim for $137,000. Titan of Crypto noted that a daily close above all major EMAs on high-timeframe charts would signal a momentum shift. Until then, traders closely monitor key support zones for signs of consolidation or accumulation.
If Bitcoin holds above its 200-day EMA and builds volume past resistance, it could draw long-term institutional capital, further accelerating its ascent. The combination of technical strength and macroeconomic liquidity might create ideal conditions for Bitcoin’s next major rally.
Key Drivers Behind the $137K Bitcoin Prediction
- Technical Pattern: Bullish pennant on the daily chart.
- Trend Confirmation: Breakout above the 200-day EMA is essential.
- Macro Support: Over $600B TGA drawdown fuels liquidity.
- Fed Liquidity: Net levels could reach $6.6 trillion by August.
- Historical Trend: 83% correlation with global liquidity.
- Investor Trends: Growing speculative capital flows into crypto.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Path to $137K Relies on Signals and Liquidity
Bitcoin’s potential climb to $137,000 by Q3 2025 looks increasingly likely as technical patterns and macroeconomic forces align. However, this target depends on several factors, including the U.S. Treasury’s ongoing liquidity injections and Bitcoin’s ability to break through critical resistance levels.
If these conditions materialize, Bitcoin could surpass its previous peak of $69,000 and solidify its status as the leading risk-on asset in a high-liquidity environment.
